Search for: All records

Arctic and subarctic rivers are warming rapidly, with unknown consequences for migratory fishes and the human communities dependent on them. To date, few studies have provided a comprehensive assessment of possible climate change impacts on the hydrology and temperature of Arctic rivers at the regional scale, and even fewer have connected those changes to multiple fish species with input and guidance from Indigenous communities. We used climate, hydrologic, and fish-growth simulations of historical (1990–2021) and future (2034–2065) young-of-year (YOY) growth potential of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) for seven river basins in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim (AYK) region of Alaska, USA and Yukon Territory, Canada. Historically, summer water temperatures of all river basins remained below thresholds regarded as deleterious for Chinook salmon (14.6 °C) and Dolly Varden (16 °C), even in the warmest years. However, by the mid-century, Chinook salmon growth was limited, with declines in the warmest years in most river basins. Conversely, Dolly Varden are expected to benefit, with a near-doubling in growth projections in all river basins. This suggests that there may be an increase in suitable habitat for Dolly Varden by mid-century. The results highlight species-specific consequences of climate change and can guide future research on refugia for these species of cultural and subsistence importance to Indigenous communities in the AYK region and throughout the Arctic. 

Abstract Earth System Models (ESM)are crucial for quantifying climate impacts across Earth's interconnected systems and supporting science‐based adaptation and mitigation. However, not including end‐users, especially decision‐makers representing communities vulnerable to climate change, can limit model utility, increase epistemic risks, and lead to information misuse in decision‐making. While the ESM community increasingly values broad community engagement, end‐users may not initially perceive models as useful for local planning. Co‐designing models with end‐users fosters two‐way learning: users better understand models and their outputs, while modelers gain insights into fine‐scale local processes like monitoring practices and management priorities. Higher‐level co‐design can lead to more customized, priority‐driven, and useful modeling products. Despite these benefits, modelers often struggle to initiate meaningful partnerships with local communities. Therefore, this paper explores model co‐design from the perspective of modelers. This study presents two case studies where modelers and social scientists collaborated with Indigenous communities' decision‐makers to reflect their priorities in model design and application. In the Arctic Rivers Project, high‐resolution climate and hydrology data sets for Alaska were developed with guidance from an Indigenous Advisory Council, using optimized, coupled land‐atmosphere models. In the Mid‐Klamath Project, we partnered with the Karuk Tribe's Department of Natural Resources to assess climate change and prescribed burning impacts on terrestrial hydrology in the Klamath River Basin. Drawing from these studies, we introduce a four‐level framework: (a) Co‐design Configuration; (b) Model Tuning; (c) Incorporate Contextual Knowledge; (d) Co‐develop New Model Functions. We aim to help researchers consider and compare co‐design across diverse modeling projects systematically and coherently. 

Abstract As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, a better understanding of the possible future impacts on people would benefit from close partnership with Indigenous communities and scientists from diverse fields of study. We present efforts by the Arctic Rivers Project to conduct community‐engaged research to increase collective understanding of the historical and potential future impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities. Working in central to northern Alaska and the Yukon Territory in Canada, the project seeks to engage with Indigenous communities in ethical and equitable ways to produces science that is useful, useable, and used that may serve as an example for future research efforts. Toward this goal, we formed an Indigenous Advisory Council and together developed project‐specific knowledge co‐production protocols. This paper provides a novel model of design and implementation to co‐produce knowledge with communities across a large study domain.